peopleKim Pepin
Postdoctoral Researcher
Email: kmp29@psu.edu
Phone: 814-865-1030
Fax: 814-865-9131
Office: 510 Mueller Laboratory
Research
I study ecological and evolutionary mechanisms of disease emergence using experimental techniques and mathematical modeling. I am particularly interested in:
- The role of reservoirs in understanding and predicting epidemiological dynamics
- Effects of genetically diverse infections on adaptation rates and emergence
- Evolutionary mechanisms of host switching
Dengue viruses: mechanisms of emergence
Dengue background
Dengue viruses (DENV) are mosquito-borne RNA viruses that are increasingly prevalent in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. The viruses cause 50 million cases of febrile illness annually. Consequently, they have a high economic impact.
Prevention relies on our ability to predict disease outbreaks and on efficiency of vector control. Vaccine development is complicated since DENVs comprise four serotypically distinct groups (serotypes 1-4).
Complex interactions between the serotypes and the immune system:
- Prolong screening and testing of vaccine candidates
- Cause complex epidemiological dynamics
The four serotypes co-circulate in most regions, but the severity, incidence, and tempo of disease differ between areas. The patterns of strain prevalence indicate frequent competitive displacement events.
My research on dengue
I'm developing mathematical and statistical models informed by empirical data to understand epidemiological patterns of dengue viruses. My emphasis is on the following:
- Effects of stochastic variation in transmission bottlenecks between vectors and humans
- Testing whether competition during mixed-strain infections in the vector may explain strain prevalence patterns, and affect rates of adaptation
- Testing whether vector populations can provide an efficient reservoir for persistence and/or evolution and re-emergence of dengue viruses
Other research topics include
- Environmental factors in explaining and predicting disease incidence; with application to leptospirosis in California sea lions
- Substitution dynamics in virus populations evolving in novel environments; understanding the genetic basis of adaptation during host switching
- Application of virus sequence data to evolutionary models of quasispecies dynamics within and between hosts