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Jessica Metcalf
Study systems include
Childhood infectious diseases (Measles, Mumps, Chicken pox, Diphtheria, Scarlet Fever, Whooping cough)
Monocarpic plants
Tropical and temperate trees
Selected publications
Metcalf CJE, Stephens D, Rees M, Louda SM & Keeler KH (2009) Understanding allocation of resources between vegetative and sexual reproduction: Using Bayesian inference to capture interdependent demography with incomplete observations. J. Appl. Stat. In press
Koons DN, Metcalf CJE & Tuljapurka, S (2008) Evolution of delayed reproduction in uncertain environments: a life history perspective. Am. Nat. 172: 797805
Metcalf CJE, Rees M, Rose KE, Sheppard A & Grubb PJ (2008) Evolution of flowering decisions in a stochastic, density-dependent environment. PNAS 105, 10466-10470.
Pavard S & Metcalf CJE (2007) Negative selection on BRCA1 susceptibility alleles sheds light on the population genetics of late-onset diseases and aging theory. PloS-One 11, e1206.
Metcalf CJE & Pavard S (2007) Why evolutionary biologists should be demographers. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 205-212.
Research interests
I use mathematical and statistical tools to quantify how evolutionary and ecological processes have shaped patterns of traits or dynamics in natural systems ranging from short-lived monocarpic plants to human diseases.
Childhood infectious diseases
The pattern and amplitude of seasonal variation in disease transmission is a key determinant of epidemic dynamics. For strongly immunizing infectious childhood infections, the main seasonal driver has classically been supposed to be aggregation of children in schools based on measles.
Currently I’m working on patterns of seasonality in six childhood infectious diseases in pre-vaccination Copenhagen, and the implications of age-structure in transmission.
Key questions include:
- Is social aggregation through school term times a sufficient explanation for seasonal patterns of transmission in childhood infectious diseases in Copenhagen?
- Can we combine information on age structure of infection with information on school closure and environmental covariates to create a more process-oriented model of infectious disease dynamics in this system?
Evolutionary Demography
For plants where reproduction is fatal, when to flower is a key issue. The longer flowering is delayed the larger an individual may grow, and therefore the more seeds it will produce. But if it delays too long, then it risks dying and not producing any seeds.
Key questions include:
- How will size-specific seed predation affect the evolutionarily stable timing of flowering?
- How will evolutionary and ecological time scales interact to determine the timing of flowering within populations?
Forestry
Forests cover more than a third of the earth’s land mass, they regulate atmospheric gases, they influence hydrological cycles, and they provide important ecosystem services to human populations, such as food, fiber, and fuel. However, understanding what shapes forest dynamics is complicated by the longevity of trees, and the uncertainty of many sources of measurement.
Key questions include:
- Can we use functional traits to predict species’ demographic rates?
- Can we infer trees' longevities?
