Study systems include
Bjornstad, O. 2015.Nonlinearity and chaos in ecological dynamics revisited. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(20): 6252-6253.
Metcalf et al 2015. Seven challenges in modeling vaccines preventable diseases. Epidemics. 10:11-15.
Morris et al 2015. Demographics buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics. Journal of The Royal Society Interface. DOI:
Luis et al 2014. Environmental fluctuations lead the predictability in Sin Nombre Hantavirus outbreaks. Ecology 96:1691–1701.
Shrestha et al 2014. Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs. Theoretical Ecology. 7(3): 299-311.
Jandarov et al 2014. Emulating a gravity model to infer the spatiotemporal dynamics of an infectious disease. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 64(3):423-444.
Greischar et al 2014. Synchrony in malaria infections: how intensifying within-host competition can be adaptive. The American Naturalist. 183(2):E36.
Lavine et al 2014. Correction: Immune Boosting Explains Regime-Shifts in Prevaccine-Era Pertussis Dynamics. PLoS One 9(1).
Beck-Johnson et al 2013. The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission. PLoS 8(11): e79276.
Metcalf et al 2013. Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE 8(9): e74696.
Nelson et al 2013. Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability. Science 341: 796-799.
Lavine et al 2013. Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086.
Metcalf et al 2011. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number. Science 333: 984-988.
Ferrari et al 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684.
Viboud 2006. Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451.
I am involved in many collaborative studies on the outbreak and persistence of infectious disease.
My work has five interrelated themes:
- Ecology of infectious disease: how do host and pathogen characteristics affect incidence of disease?
- Population dynamics: how do the interactions between individuals and between individuals and the environment determine fluctuations in abundance? What are the effects of heterogeneity in the environment?
- Interactions between species: how do competition, predation and parasitism affect disease dynamics?
- Spatial dynamics: what causes regional synchrony or asynchrony in fluctuations?
- Ecological statistics: how can we test theories about spatiotemporal variation using abundance data?
I combine mathematical modelling with analysis of empirical data sets to generate and test hypotheses.