Study systems include
Metcalf et al 2013. Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS ONE 8(9): e74696.
Nelson et al 2013. Recurrent insect outbreaks caused by temperature-driven changes in system stability. Science 341: 796-799.
Lavine et al 2013. Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086.
Metcalf et al 2011. Partitioning regulatory mechanisms of within-host malaria dynamics using the effective propagation number. Science 333: 984-988.
Ferrari et al 2008. Seasonality, stochasticity and the dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451: 679-684.
Viboud 2006. Synchrony, waves and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312: 447-451.
I am involved in many collaborative studies on the outbreak and persistence of infectious disease.
My work has five interrelated themes:
- Ecology of infectious disease: how do host and pathogen characteristics affect incidence of disease?
- Population dynamics: how do the interactions between individuals and between individuals and the environment determine fluctuations in abundance? What are the effects of heterogeneity in the environment?
- Interactions between species: how do competition, predation and parasitism affect disease dynamics?
- Spatial dynamics: what causes regional synchrony or asynchrony in fluctuations?
- Ecological statistics: how can we test theories about spatiotemporal variation using abundance data?
I combine mathematical modelling with analysis of empirical data sets to generate and test hypotheses.